First things first, Consumer price index data finally came slightly lower then expected 5.3 vs the 5.4 , honestly the nail on the coffin for the inflation scare will be with Octobers consumer price index data , if it shows a staling in inflation or even some deflation in some items , the transitory theory that jpow has been talking about for the past few months will be proven true. Furthermore , a lot of the inflation is due to supply chains issues aka transitory aka this shit isnt forever . Honestly by 2023 i think supply chains should be solved … hopefully maybe not all but a good portion.
The delta strain , caused a little bit of a fuck up which the market priced in relatively quick, if Im being honest , idk what to say about covid one day we are like 250K+ the next we are up 70k+ . I hope we hit a peak already and are now going back down but who knows with the holidays and flu season around the corner .
So this is just my view and what ill be planning on doing ,
First off, spys been selling off since last week , honestly its been a slow bleed all the way down to the 50ma, Im really expecting a bounce around there any time now . Im bearish on spy for the rest of this week because well, the ex dividend date is this Friday 9/17/2021. So chance on spy hitting any new highs this week are out of the equation. Also im just expecting a sell off for the rest of week maybe either tomo or Thursday a little pump but really not expecting much as it heads off to its ex dividend date.
Ill probably scalp puts, not sure which strike yet because idk what spys price will be these next 2 days.
A lot of people are talking about a market having a crash or something coming and to them , all ill say is , put your money where your mouth is, right now is just a buying opportunity in my eyes ( for me im waiting for a little bit more of a dip , before buying some calls , but i am starting to sell dec puts for fb, and nvidia )
I think what the market is doing right now is well… listening to jpow and understanding that he was right… " economy open inflation go big, spending go big then stop , slow growth realization, market back to normal."
Economy opened and sure enough consumer price index came in hot which was expected , low supply , high demand, then it was followed by stellar earnings because well stimulus people stimulus. People still had that federal boost and all of that other stuff now that stimulus is gone , the market is figuring out that "oh shit, everythings not going to grow as much because people arent spending as much and stimulus ended." Thats what i think is getting priced in now and why stocks are dropping right now .
If anything , this pain will start ending this friday ( ex dividend for spy so that itself is the last negative catalyst and it will probably finally hit the 50 ma 441 maybe a little lower but should start some kind of rebound. Then next week we have the fomc meeting where jpow will grab all the bears by the balls and say we will not taper until later which will cause the start of the next rally which will go into q3 earnings which will probably destroy expectations since we still had stimi cash , and if congress passes this new bill aka the 3 trilli bill then ladies and gentlemen q4 will be sexy asf . Which is followed by a wtf we doing in 2022 but hey , enjoy the moment guys !
Go ahead and share your thoughts im all ears !
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September 14, 2021 at 06:13PM