TMC stock is gonna explode!
TMC (The Metals Company) is a recent "de-SPA C" that started trading on Friday. It’s a deep seas mining company with a market cap of $2.35 billion with 245 million shares outstanding (current price in the $9 – $10 range).
The key here though is that 231 million shares are locked up at least 6 months and the 11 million Pipe shares are locked for at least a month (but perhaps longer because 2/3 of their PIPE didn’t pay up).
Okay, so why dow we care? Here’s why this is potentially one of the most explosive stocke we’ve ever seen this week:
The curren float is 2.72 million becasue 91% of the original 30 million shares redeemed for cash.
The short interest is around 1.77 million shares(or roughly 65% of the current float is short).
But here’s the "canary in the coal mine": the open interest. Market makers were selling calls based on prior 30 million shares outstanding before last Friday, which means they’ve solde much more than the entrie current float.
There are 25k calls for Friday 17 of september between $10 and $12.50.
That’s 2.5 million shares.
There’s another 8.2k calls for Friday 17 of september between $14 and $15
That’s another 820k shares
That means if the stock is over $12.50 by Friday, MMs will need 92% of the current float to meet just September calls. If it’s over $15 by Friday, MM’s will need 120+% of the current float to meet those calls.
That’s just September. Add in those October calls (another 11.8k calls between $10 and $12.50 and another 7k calls between $14 and $15) and you’d require another 1.9 million shares for those…
So if TMC goes over $15, MMs would need 190% of the current float to account for September/October calls
(And as I mentioned above 65% of the current float is short).
I’m gonna be honest, credits to u/…., it is his DD, but it got deleted due to the market cap. Now the market cap is large enough fort r/wallstreetbets.
I have never seen a situation like this (because the level of redemptions for recent de-SPACs recently is unprecedented). MMs have to keep this pinned under $10 by Friday or hell will break loose.
Just take a look at $IRNT…..
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September 15, 2021 at 09:59AM