Lumber Chicago just came back off from 1500 to 600. Spot nov trading 606 right now. Understand the rally was covid and lack of logistics as well as supply issues driven; but that at this stage has not changed globally. If anything it may have accentuated given the very very high freight market only being one directional. My background is in physical agricultural commods, and physical basis. I look at the lumber market and feel that it peaked, then corrected, and now should be worth a consideration on the long side given the upcoming supply chain disruptions, increased housing and new building demand given low interest rates, and massive supply guts in both container and bulk markets. Also given the fact that India is now importing lumber due to shortages over funeral pires, few factors in this market to be considered. However I do know there are far smarter peeps in this thread. Would love some comments and insights.
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September 3, 2021 at 10:22AM