$TSLA – BIGGEST PROFIT OPPORTUNITY ON TSLA THIS ALL 2021
I’m going to be quick but clear about what’s up, it’s a lot of numbers so I TLDR’d.
Falling wedge on the annual graph for TSLA, we’re compressed and ready to go in either direction. Not good enough. Which direction?
There are 881,441 calls written between now and the 10th of next month and 1,026,076 puts. 60% ish I didn’t bother to get perfect %s.
The distribution of the top 10 highest volume contracts from this window of time is 60% bullish compared to where we’re at today, i.e. MMs don’t wanna get assigned at 645 upward to 700-ish between now and mid-July. The 40% which are bearish are at current levels, lowest is 600. All of this makes sense for a wedge and out of 10, it’s basically 50/50, let’s just forget the 10% delta… so we need to get clusters from the top 10.
Of the 60% which are bullish 33% of them are in the top 3. Top 6 is 80% bullish. 75% of bearish writes are in the bottom 30% of the top 10 highest volume calls.
All of this combined tilts $TSLA about 1% toward the bullish direction for a massive breakout between now and the end of July.
If you want to believe $TSLA follow any kind of rules, there is also this that makes it maybe 55% bullish on calls.
In Kirkpatrick and Dalquist's Technical Analysis, they write that the failure rate for the falling wedge is considerably low. The failure rate for an upwards breakout is only 8% – 11%. The rarer breakout lower has a much higher failure rate of 15% – 24%
I don’t know who these fucks are but sounds like they did a lot of work. I looked up "falling wedge probability" and clicked the first link which affirmed my position on this matter.
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June 10, 2021 at 11:13AM