Spy-When to Buy.
This isn’t financial advice and I am not responsible for you blowing up your account.
TL:DR: I am going to BUY end of Month APRIL call contracts after 1-2% drop from 4/1 open. YOLO Stim money.
Rule one of forecasting:
PAST PERFORMANCE ISN’T A INDICATOR OF FUTURE RESULTS.
So you all saw the Graph telling you April is the best time to buy as it shows a 2% gain on average. While this is true what is left out is why April is higher. The reason April is higher is because it is were a lot of the bounce backs have occurred in April while March tends to suck.
I went and pulled all of Spy from 1993 to 2021 and this is what I found.
Spy mostly ends up back were it started between open and close but has large swings between days.
The months with the highest ratios being positive tends to be April and November for the data set as shown below.
As you can see from 1993 through 2020 April still had some red months but is it is mostly green dildos.
Here is the actual Avg % gain between the first of the month and end of the month from 1993-2021 excluding outliers like the crash of 2020 in march and the recovery in April. Anything outside of -9% and 10% was an outlier.
Included is the avg % difference between the months lowest point and opening price for the month.
For the most part April stands a really good chance of being green but don’t buy any options until SPY is below what ever it is going to be on 4/1 by 1-2% as current option contacts by the end of April have to move 1.5-2% for you to just break even.
April tends to only increase by ~1.5% by close on 4/30.
For you smooth brains this means you are likely fucked if you buy EOM contracts the first of the month. So wait for red day and then buy and enjoy the ride.
If you time the lowest price in April the likely max price change you can get by the end of the month is 4% but there are years were it went up 8%.
This is what I am going to throw my stim money on and see what happens.
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March 29, 2021 at 09:47PM