$AAL – The American Airlines Degenerate Gamble – AAL Trade Thesis
What’s poppin’ fellas, hope you’re all doing well. I’ve got a short little trade thesis that I can’t get out of my mind due to how odd it is, and was looking for some second opinions on it.
In my spare time, I’ve been working on a few tools to help me with my trades. I’ve been working on a program similar to CheddarFlow, which analyzes a shitload of options data, performs various forms of analysis on it, and then alerts me if there’s anything funky going on which could help net me some easy cash. Earlier today, my program notified me of this order, which I found really odd, due to the entire nature of it. $50,000 worth of 0.04 cent AAL options hitting the wire expiring this Thursday. This trade alone isn’t that crazy since it could’ve been made due to a multitude of different reasons, but shortly after the order was caught, I got alerted that government officials were also picking up shares of various airlines.
So now, things are interesting. We got crazy volume on an obscenely stupid OTM AAL call option expiring this Thursday, alongside government officials swallowing shares of various airline companies. What do we make of this? Does somebody know something? I’m not entirely convinced that this isn’t a crazy coincidence, but the contracts are literally the same price as a scratch ticket coming in at 4$ a pop, so it’s not like the overhead cost to play is that high.
I initially thought that this play may have been a hedge for an insanely large short position, but the stock volume, combined with the insanely short date on the purchased options says otherwise. I also thought that it could be part of a janky ass multi-legged options strategy, but my program already checks for that, and upon manual inspection of the data, I also couldn’t find anything. What the fuck is going on? If anyone has any ideas, theories or relevant helpful information on the topic, please share!
I’m not trying to bullshit anyone, this trade is likely gonna go straight to 0 well before Thursday rolls around. That being said, coincidence or not, the circumstances surrounding it are quite enticing. To those traders who are addicted to FDs, or have cash burning a hole in their pocket and want to YOLO on something, I feel like this trade is the one to go with. For the same price as a scratch ticket, this trade provides us with comparable odds.
TLDR : $AAL 2021-04-01 C $26
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March 29, 2021 at 03:44PM